Oscar Posters, Reinterpreted

Black Swan by Adam Simpson

The King’s Speech by Dean Walton

The Social Network by Laz Marquez

Inception by Dan Sherratt

These images are all from Reelizer, which has tons of artist/fan art takes on movie posters (and more Oscar nominees). Found via Cultural Compulsive Disorder, my favorite new find of the weekend.

Previously on Popped Culture...

How Inception Should Have Ended

Toy Story 3: Inception

If Historical Events had Facebook Statuses

Vintage Oscars

Norma Shearer, Audrey Hepburn, Cary Grant and Jean Simmons, Rock Hudson ~ Cary Grant, Marilyn Monroe, Grace Kelly with Natalie Wood, Marlon Brando & Grace Kelly, Marlon Brando, Bob Hope trying to steal Marlon Brando’s newly acquired Oscar, Paul Newman, Vivien Leigh & Laurence Olivier.

I'm The King Of The Universe!

I loved Hurt Locker, but this is pretty much how I figure it will go at the Oscars. I barely feel invested in this year's race, but I can't not make a few picks.

Best Picture: Avatar - they can't ignore a film that has made a couple of billion dollars.
Best Director: Kathyrn Bigelow - Hurt Locker's concession to losing Best Picture.
Best Actor: Jeff Bridges - I haven't seen Crazy Heart, but Bridges is the only choice anyone is making.
Best Actress: Sandra Bullock - The Blind Side's reward for a Best Picture nod.
Best Supporting Actor: Mo'Nique - Like Bridges, the runaway favourite. 
Best Supporting Actress: Christoph Waltz - He owned every scene of Inglourious Basterds he was in and was a thrill to watch.
Best Original Screenplay: I want Inglourious Basterds to win, if just to watch Quentin Tarantino to bring his sweaty, nervous energy to the Oscar podium.
Best Adapted Screenplay: I'm going with District 9 because I enjoyed it, but that's usually the kiss of death for my choices.
Best Animated Film: Up has the only real shot here.

These are hardly out-there picks, so if you want to win your Oscar pool, you'll have to do it in the other 15 categories. I have no idea about these, so you're on your own, but you can pretty much pick Avatar for any technical categories. Oh yeah, and Logorama for Best Animated Short, one I actually posted about.  (Pic via Comixed)

Previously on Popped Culture...
Team Avatar: Pandora Police
Meanwhile, In The Parallel Lost Universe...
Titanic Wars

Cut The Red Wire

Retro-style poster for The Hurt Locker, by graphic designer Tavis Coburn for the British Academy of Film and Television Arts Awards. He also has poster versions of Avatar, An Education, Precious (you can't make me use the whole name) and Up In The Air. (BAFTA posters via Joey DeVilla)

Previously on Popped Culture...
Retro Geek
Retro Lost
Don't Tell Locke What He Can't Do

Logorama

An entire universe from buildings to people made out of corporate logos, replete with car chases, shootouts wild animals and natural disasters, Logorama is a tour de force of graphic design.

The Oscar-nominated animated short used at least two thousand logos in its creation and is more than worth the 14-minute runtime, which is saying something coming from a short attention span web junkie like myself.  (Hat tip to Neatorama)




Previously on Popped Culture...
Viral Marketing
Bad Commercials Are Good For You
And I'll Whisper, "Would You Like Fries With That?"

Oscar Night Predictions: Every Slumdog Has His Day

I feel like a fraud. As of two nights ago the only Oscar-nominated films I'd seen were The Dark Knight, Tropic Thunder and Wall-E. My bragging rights came from having caught Waltz With Bashir at the Toronto Film Festival in September.

This might not seem like a big deal to some, but I used to run a commercial mainstream entertainment website for four years and even my current co-workers ask me, "I thought you some sort of culture vulture?" Some vulture. Some days I barely even get a whiff of the corpse, let alone get a good chew, especially when it comes to movies. I suppose that comes with the territory - an early-morning job and an active two-year-old. But still.

Last night I may have stumbled across the solution, though it feels like a Faustian bargain. A friend passed along a website (http://www.watch-movies-links.net/) where all the Oscar-nominated films are steaming, along with some 10,000 other films. We watched Slumdog Millionaire on the laptop with no problem. It was clearly a screen and had some occasional pixelization issues, but the stream never dropped, never buffered.

I do have some problems with this. I know I lost some of the visual wonder of having not seem this on a big screen or even in a DVD format on my TV. I also think content creators should get paid. I get that films cost money — I'm no privacy advocate.

That being said, I loved the experience. I popped on the site, typed in a name of what I wanted to see, clicked and it played. No fuss. I want to see these film, but I can't right now, so what can I do. This site embodies what we have been promised for years — being able to chose what you want to watch, when you want to. Truly personalized and on-demand.

This site could be the Napster of movies and the studios need to learn the lessons of the music industry and not try to quash it, but get behind it and find a way to monetize it. There will always be pirates, but make a site like this that is simple to use, delivers a good product and for a reasonable price and I will pay and so will others. It's why iTunes has succeeded.

The other point of this rant is I will likely be catching up with the other films soon, but don't actually believe that you need to see them to enter — and win — an Oscar pool. And with that, here are my predictions for what they are worth.

BEST PICTURE
Slumdog Millionaire

DIRECTING
Slumdog Millionaire

ACTOR, LEADING
Mickey Rourke in The Wrestler

ACTRESS, LEADING
Kate Winslet in The Reader

ACTOR, SUPPORTING
Heath Ledger in The Dark Knight

ACTRESS, SUPPORTING
Viola Davis in Doubt

SCREENPLAY, ORIGINAL
Milk

SCREENPLAY, ADAPTED
Slumdog Millionaire

FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
Waltz with Bashir

ANIMATED FEATURE
WALL-E

CINEMATOGRAPHY
Slumdog Millionaire

VISUAL EFFECTS
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button

ART DIRECTION
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button

COSTUME DESIGN
The Duchess

FILM EDITING
Slumdog Millionaire

MAKEUP
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button

DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
Trouble the Water

DOCUMENTARY SHORT
The Conscience of Nhem En

SHORT FILM, ANIMATED
Presto

SHORT FILM, LIVE ACTION
Spielzeugland (Toyland)

SOUND EDITING
The Dark Knight

SOUND MIXING
The Dark Knight

ORIGINAL SCORE
Slumdog Millionaire

ORIGINAL SONG
Down to Earth from WALL-E

And here are my sources:
EW's Oscar predictions
Film Experience
Awards Daily: Oscar Contender Tracker
New York Magazine: Oscar Predictions You Can Bet On!

And after a couple of years of live blogging this Hollywood love-in, I think I will leave that task to the millions of others who have taken to the sport. I may drop in at The Ampersand, just to see what they have to say, but other than that I might just watch the show.

Update:
I got 16/24 right, about my usual par. Last year was 15/24, so having watched fewer films made no real difference whatsoever. I bet against Slumdog twice (what was I thinking?) and lost on a few of the smaller tech categories. I also went for Rourke in the 50/50 contest and got the short stick. Ah well.

Other than that, a fairly tight show, though they could drop at least one of sound categories and maybe the original song, which is mostly played over closing credits and has nothing to do with the film (Slumdog notwithstanding.)

The Curious Case of Benjamin Button Backlash

You'd think 13 Academy Award nominations would garner you a little love, but it appears not everyone thinks The Curious Case of Benjamin Button is Oscar worthy. Specifically the creators of the Official Anti-Benjamin Button Club, whose goal is to ensure "one of the most pretentious, hackneyed and blatant attempt(s) to win an Oscar ever made" does not succeed.

Now I have heard of For Your Consideration campaigns before, but not one to get people to consider not voting for a film. And they really don't like the movie:

There are haikus:
old man you are small
time passes hummingbirds fly
why why three hours

Suggestions to the Academy:
If you like Benjamin Button, you might also enjoy: Turner and Hootch; Licking batteries; Moss

And helpful videos that suggest we may have seen this somewhere before:

The Curious Case of Forrest Gump - watch more funny videos

I haven't seen the movie myself, but they make a compelling case to spend my three hours elsewhere

Oscar nominations: Slumdog Button

So Heath Ledger is in for an Oscar nod but the Dark Night gets shut out for both picture and director.

A friend of mine, who just happens to be a film critic, says "if you're a professional Movie Critic calling "The Dark Knight" or "Revolutionary Road" The Best! Movie! Of the Year!, then you need to see more movies."

This lays at the heart of the Academy's identity problem. It wants to award the best films of the year, but nobody ever believes that they go — just look at all the Oscar snubs lists — and all the prognosticators who will list both what should win and what will win.

Of course they wont to be popular, but they don't want to be seen to be pandering to the public. Which makes it so hard when that booze-soaked upstart Golden Globes, which is a critic's group, at least nominally.

My point? The Oscars is chasing ratings and credibility and won't get either.

But then they went and nominated Robert Downey Jr. for Tropic Thunder, in black face no less, while Wall-E can't escape the Animated Film ghetto. Looks like this is Slumdog Millionaire's year. Who knows what they are up to?

One positive note Waltz With Bashir gets a Foreign Film nominations — everyone should see this film. A blend of documentary and animation about one soldier trying to reconstruct his memories of Israel's 1982 incursion into Lebanon, Waltz With Bashir has grown on me so much since we saw it at the Toronto Film Festival in September, I'd say it was the best picture of year. So maybe the Academy does get some things right.

But other than that, it was mostly anticlimactic. Here are the major nominations for the 81st Annual Academy Awards:

Best Picture: Slumdog Millionaire, Milk, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button, Frost/Nixon and The Reader

Best Actor: Richard Jenkins “The Visitor”, Sean Penn “Milk”, Frank Langella “Frost/Nixon”, Mickey Rourke “The Wrestler”, Brad Pitt “The Curious Case of Benjamin Button”

Best Actress: Kate Winslet “The Reader”, Meryl Streep “Doubt”, Anne Hathaway “Rachel Getting Married”, Angelina Jolie “Changeling”, Melissa Leo “Frozen River”

Director: Danny Boyle “Slumdog Millionaire”, David Fincher “The Curious Case of Benjamin Button”, Stephen Daldry “The Reader”, Gus Van Sant “Milk”, Ron Howard “Frost/Nixon”

Best Supporting Actor: Heath Ledger “The Dark Knight”, Josh Brolin “Milk”, Philip Seymour Hoffman “Doubt”, Robert Downey Jr “Tropic Thunder”, Michael Shannon “Revolutionary Road”

Best Supporting Actress: Penelope Cruz “Vicky Cristina Barcelona”, Viola Davis “Doubt”, Marisa Tomei “The Wrestler”, Taraji P. Henson “The Curious Case of Benjamin Button”, Amy Adams “Doubt”

Best Animated Feature: Bolt, Kung-Fu Panda, Wall-E

Best Original Screenplay: Frozen River, Happy Go Lucky, In Bruges, Milk, Wall-E

Best Adapted Screenplay: The Curious Case of Benjamin Button, Doubt, Frost/Nixon, Slumdog Millionaire, The Reader

Best Foreign Language Film: The Class, Der Baader Meinhof Komplex, Revanche, Departures, Waltz with Bashir

-------

My many, many thanks to Pamela Westoby for her stunning tenure at the helm of Popped Culture while I lazed away a week in chilly Florida. She deserves a nomination. And may I also nominate America for Heineken at the 7/11, Denny's Grand Slam breakfast and Target for bringing back desert boots!

Oscar For Joker No Trick

When Heath Ledger died of an overdose last January, their were almost immediate calls for him to receive a posthumous Oscar nod for his work as the Joker in The Dark Knight. It all seemed premature and a little bit exploitative, as only a few had seen the film

The calls came again when the film was released in January, from his co-stars:
Michael Caine: "Heath will surely get a posthumous nomination for an Academy Award"
Maggie Gyllenhaal: "In a way I feel funny thinking about the Oscars when he isn't alive, but at the same time I'm a member of the Academy and I would vote for him."
Gary Oldman: "He may be the first actor since Peter Finch. He may even win the damn thing." Finch being the only person to win posthumously, earning the best-actor prize for 1976's Network two months after he died.

Critics have also praised Ledger's work as Oscar-worthy and having seen the film, I can't disagree. Still, it seemed unlikely. For all its dark reality, it's still a summer blockbuster, the kind of popcorn film the Academy rarely gets behind.

But perhaps we are going to witness one of those occasional moments in time where the most popular movie of the year intersects with the Oscars. Warner Brothers obviously believes its possible and has launched a For Your Consideration campaign, looking for nods in 15 different categories (including best picture), but mostly focusing on Ledger's performance.

I'm beginning to think it might just happen.

(Link via Ampersand)

Lights, Cameras, Oscar Live Blog

So even the writer's strike couldn't stop the show from going on, and while I think it would have been amusing to see this bloated love-in taken down, now that it is here I might as well as snipe from the sidelines. I couldn't bring myself to watch the red carpet though, but for a full rundown of all the fakery, check out The Ampersand and Inside the Box. On with the show...

8:30 - Just a big ol' montage — every film needs a montage.

8:33 - Jon Stewart acknowledges the writer's strike right off the top — nice to see, I suppose you can't ignore the elephant in the room. He's looking way more comfortable than last time.

8:35 - "Thank goodnees for teen sex!" Truer words were never spoken.

8:36 - The first Jack Nicholson reaction shot. They will return to it again and again and...

8:38 - Going after Dennis Hopper? Seems a little odd and easy, but ok. Oh, but he did teach everyone how to find their own porn name, thanks to Juno screenwriter Diablo Cody, which is also a fine porn name. Mine is Sasha St. George.

8:39 - Iraq humour is not going down so well, but jokes at Republicans? Bullseye.

8:40 - The camera guys keep panning to black members of the audience each time Stewart mentions Barack Obama. It's already predictable.

8:42 - Aren't they supposed to start with a big award? Costume design is the first up, which leads me to believe we are in for a long night. First Oscar goes to Elizabeth: The Golden Age and I am batting zero on the Oscar pool. Nice short speech though. Did they have the Babs clip ready if somebody went short?

8:47 - George Clooney comes up to joke about how long the show is and then presents a clip that will help it drag on. It's 80 years of Oscars as the show tries to get a piece of what every online site, paper and magazine has been running for the past few weeks. Can't blame 'em for trying to get a piece of the action I suppose. On the up side there was a great shot of Jack with what looked like hair plugs. God Hollywood loves themselves.

8:51 - Steve Carrell gets a Get Smart intro. They are really going to push that film. Hmm, they really needed the writers to put together that "spontaneous" dialogue?

8:54 - Ratatouille wins for Animated Film and I'm on the board. Where is the Simpson Movie in this category? Nowhere, that's where. Let that be a lesson for anyone who waits a full decade after they were at the top of their game. And the winner is the first to be played off the stage.

8:57 - La Vie en Rose wins for Best Makeup. Another win for me, another play off the stage.

8:59 - While I don't find people reading lists of names all that enticing, I'd pick that over performances of the Best Original Song. Play long clips of the Best Picture nominees, linger on Jack smirking at the camera — anything but these songs which have so little to do with the films.

9:07 - Visual Effects? Really saving up the for the biggies aren't they? And the Rock as a presenter? Is that some sort of comment about wrestling?

9:08 - The Golden Compass wins and my Oscar picks drop to 50/50. So in a battle between polar bears and giant transforming robots, the bears win. Who knew?

9:10 - We are whipping through the tech categories — take that newspapers with early deadlines. Sweeny Todd wins for Art Direction and I'm back on the plus side, for anyone who is keeping track. Much love for Johnny Depp — and who can blame them? He is the coolest man on earth.

9:13 - Jon says Cate Blanchett is unstoppable. She's a double nominee for Elizabeth and I'm Not There, but that's the sort of thing that tends to split your vote. We'll see soon enough.

9:15 - Cuba Gooding's repeat speech is longer than the first winner of the night. Whatever happened to that guy?

9:18 - Woo hoo, Javier Bardem wins for No Country for Old Men! The first for a No Country sweep? Bardem was so incredibly creepy, it's well deserved. Other than "thanking" the Coen's for his bob haircut, he spends the rest of his time thanking his mom in Spanish — what a sweet guy. C'mon Academy, give these folks some more time.

9:23 - Stewart continues his riff on the writer's strike with "faux" Oscar montages — tributes to periscopes and binoculars and bad dreams. Beats out these Best Song sections.

9:26 - You know what I miss? Interpretive dancing. That was at least terrible enough to be enjoyable. These are just good bathroom breaks. Ha, Stewart just rolled his eyes!

9:28 - Look Owen Wilson is at the Oscars and isn't in the dead people montage!
Too soon?

9:30 - Le Mozart Des Pickpockets wins for Live Action Short Film and I'm back to 50% in the pool. Arrgh!

9:32 - Seinfeld does the bee thing and it is good. I wonder how many times he's been asked to host? Peter and the Wolf wins and I am being killed in my picks. Good thing I'm not at any fabulous party or anything.

9:37 - An hour in and only the second major award of the night. Tilda Swinton wins and swears she is going to give her Oscar to her agent. We'll see if that happens. And she appears to dedicate it to George Clooney's Batman nipples as well.

9:44 - Jessica Alba is a hot mommy-to-be. She hosted the Scientific and Technical Awards which makes you wonder, if they have a show like that, how did TWO sound editing awards make it to the big show?

9: 46 - Only the second Jack mugging of the evening. What's going on?

9:47 - More Jack. There we go. And what a terrible intro for an award about writing - a stilted reading of famous lines. The Coen's win Best Adapted Screenplay for No Country and they have an equally awkward acceptance speech. Their talent is behind the camera, not in front of it. Sadly, it means Sarah Polley loses, but I'm sure this is a case where it was an honour just to be nominated.

9:50 - An explanation about how the voting process works. Yet another bit that has been covered in features in the weeks proceeding, ad nauseum. At least even Stewart knows how lame it is: "That's amazing."

10:02 - Knocked Up's Jonah Hill and Seth Rogen bicker over which one of them is Halle Berry (you had to be there). I can only give thanks that neither of them wore a dress.

10:04 - Yay for Bourne Ultimatum, which picks up an Oscar for Sound Editing. The Bourne series needs more recognition for its reinvention of the action film. Too bad it is not on my Oscar ballot.

10:05 - And then they go right ahead and do so, which wins for Sound Mixing. Which, I believe, means Transformers has been shut out at the Oscars. I'm unbelievably relieved.

10:13 - Marion Cotillard wins for La Vie En Rose and seems truly thankful and stunned. You will see that clip played next year. And I am officially killed on the ballot this year. My apologies to anyone who read the previous post. This is also an upset for Julie Christie, the presumed favourite and he director Sarah Polley.

10:18 - Colin Farrell almost wipes out on stage, but then he doesn't. I'm kinda bored now, but seeing as they are playing another song it's time for snacks and beverages.

10:22 - Jack gets the stage and he's got another pair of sunglasses. He's smirking, but who knows why, he's Jack. Then in yet another montage, all the previous Best Pictures are shown, with both the picture and titles cut off. Bang up job there, Academy or CTV. One of you.

10: 27 - Unforgiven becomes Forgiven and Gladiator is Ladiator. Turns out that was more amusing than I expected.

10:29 - Bourne Ultimatum wins again, this time for Film Editing. I'll have to check the stats, but I think that makes it the big winner of the night, at least so far. "Someone just took the lead in their Oscar pool based on a guess," says Stewart. So true, and it's not me.

10:31 - Even pregnancy can't make Nicole Kidman glow. Damn, she's icy.

10:36 - The Honorary Oscar winner, Robert Boyle, is old enough to refer to Alfred Hitchcock as Hitch. That's cool.

10:42 - Time for the foreign film award — turns out that wasn't La Vie en Rose. Austria wins for The Counterfeiters. Never bet against a Holocaust film.

10:44 - Another song. I wonder if I still have pizza in the fridge? I do, score!

10:49 - John Travolta, who is looking more like Steven Segal, or a vampire, repeats all the Best Song nominees. If they cut this category (or at least the songs) that would be a half hour off the runtime. "Falling Slowly" wins — at least he had a fine speech.

10:57 - Stewart hands over his time to Marketa Irglova who was unceremoniously played off the stage before she could speak about her win for "Falling Slowly." A class act by both.

10:59 - Camon Diaz babbles away before presenting the cinematography award to There Will Be Blood. Yay, I got another one right!

11:01 - Dead person montage! My bet is Heath Ledger will end it. It must be odd for the family of people who get no applause. How uncomfortable. They really need to put some film names up with the pics - I don't know who most of these people are.

11:05 - Heath wins the pool and the audience goes silent.

11:09 - Amy Adams explains why film scores matter and it works! In fact it showed why the song category doesn't. Can you tell I don't like the songs. Atonement wins, and my ballot is picking up.

11:12 - Various soldiers, live from Baghdad, present the Documentary Short Film nominees. See, Hollywood supports the troops!

11:18 - Perhaps it was to balance out the win by Taxi To The Dark Side. The most political speech of the night. "Let's turn away from the dark side and into the light."

11:23 - Harrison Ford is back from the dead! Oh wait, he just looks like that. I'm so worried about the next Indiana Jones flick. If it turns out ok they should win an Oscar for best effects.

11:25 - Diablo Cody, the hottest writer in Hollywood, wins Best Original Screenplay for Juno. It's a great moment — she's an ex-stripper, this is her first screenplay (at least her first made into a movie) and it is for the feel good film of the night.

11:31 - We are now officially into overtime. Of course that was the easiest pick of the night.

11:34 - Daniel Day Lewis wins Best Actor for There Will Be Blood — one of the only sure picks of the night. He's so gracious.

11:36 - What have they done with Stewart? He hasn't had any screen time for ages and I didn't notice until now. This show really doesn't need a host and Stewart's talents are wasted here. He's watered down and benign, with out his sidekicks to bounce off. If they ask you again, say no.

11:43 - The Coen Brothers win Best Director for No Country For Old Men. These guys just love making movies. They'd best not go to far, they will have to make another of their short speeches in a few minutes.

11:46 - No Country For Old Men wins for Best Picture. We went to see it at the Toronto film festival this year and I'm glad we did as it was one of the only nominated films we got to see this year. It was a cold, cold film about the evil that men do, but virtuoso film making and well deserved.

11:49 - So I got 15/24 right, a pass, but not much of one. I nailed Picture, Director, Actor, Supporting Actor and Actress and the writing categories but fell apart on the more technical awards. It may have helped if I'd seen more films, but a 16-month-old makes that hard. Ah well.

So a generally unexciting show made more so by showing all the exciting moments of the past 80 years.

Oscar Pool 101

Predicting the Oscars is not that hard, but winning an Oscar pool is almost as difficult as getting one of this little golden men. I may not be able to get you to the top, but follow this advice and I will at least bring you into striking distance.


1. Read those who know

I don't have any special insider knowledge or Academy clairvoyance, but I read people who seem to. First stop for anyone filling out their ballot should be Entertainment Weekly. They predict every category, down to the two sound categories, with surprising accuracy. Yup, there are two sound categories and winning them will help you rise to the top.

Next stop, Film Experience. Nathaniel has a unerring sense of what is going to win and also what is going to be nominated in the first place. His perspective is that of a true film fanatic who is able to look past who he would like to win to who actually will. While neither source is infallible, in the long run you can't beat their track records.

There are a few other sites that can help you through your choices (Awards Daily; The Envelope; Oscar Frenzy) but you can drive yourself crazy trying to keep up with it all.

2. Know what has come before

Academy voters usually belong to another Hollywood group that, more likely than not, has their own award show that precedes the Oscars. These are the folks that get ballots so knowing how they voted will give you a pretty good idea of how the night will progress.

Screen Actors Guild Awards

Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Leading Role
Daniel Day-Lewis – There Will Be Blood

Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Leading Role
Julie Christie – Away From Her

Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Supporting Role
Javier Bardem – No Country For Old Men

Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Supporting Role
Ruby Dee – American Gangster

Outstanding Performance by a Cast in a Motion Picture
No Country For Old Men

Writers Guild of America

Original Screenplay
Juno, Written by Diablo Cody

Adapted Screenplay
No Country For Old Men, Screenplay by Ethan Coen & Joel Coen, Based on the Novel by Cormac McCarthy

Directors Guild of America

Outstanding Directorial Achievement in Feature Film
Joel Coen & Ethan Coen - No Country for Old Men

Producers Guild of America

Darryl F. Zanuck Producer of the Year Award in Theatrical Motion Pictures
No Country for Old Men

3. Know the odds

You can read the critics lists but realistically they don't really come into play on this night. The critics will pick what they believe is the best film or performance of the lot — which is at it should be — but should win doesn't matter. So go the guys who are in it to win: the Las Vegas Oscar odds.

Pretty much all the online bookmakers are putting out odds, as do the casinos. Here's the line from Bodog on best picture — you can read the rest here.

Odds On: Which film will win the 80th Annual Academy (Oscar) Award for Best Picture?

Atonement: 6/1
Juno : 13/2
Michael Clayton: 25/1
No Country for Old Men: 4/11
There Will Be Blood: 11/2

4. Ignore all the above

Every year there is an unexpected winner that nobody sees coming. So take a chance on a long shot to get an edge over the competition. But you should mostly copy EW. I'll let you know how it worked for me.

An Rx for Oscar

Suppose they held the Oscars and nobody came? While that isn’t likely to happen anytime soon, if the show carries on being such an anti-climactic snoozefest people will continue to tune out and I’d rather not see that happen. We need to have common cultural experiences and film is a powerful medium to rally around, especially as the Academy Awards are opening up to more international filmmakers and stories. Hollywood has been exporting to the world for decades and we’re now seeing the results.

But even while Oscar is opening its golden arms to a diverse range of movies, the telecast itself is falling behind the times. As an industry that is geared towards entertaining and getting big bang for the buck, how is it that the telecast is so tedious? Sure, the show is self-congratulatory, but I expect that. As an award show put on by the some of the most privileged, navel-gazers on earth, it’s bound to be.

What needs to go are some of the technical categories – sound editing and mixing, art direction and makeup. The typical movie fan can judge the rest of the categories, but those four should be moved to the technical awards. They will still get Oscars for them, just not in the televised part. I’d also like to see the original song category dropped altogether – so often these songs are played over the closing credits and add nothing to the film. They are also pure torture in the middle of a show that is already too long.

The Academy should also move up the date of the show again to try and cut the legs out of all the other shows that have cropped up over the years. Something needs to be done to make the awards not seem like a foregone conclusion. Other than Alan Arkin taking the best supporting actor Oscar, the other five top categories were locked in weeks — if not months — ago. It hardly makes for compelling TV.

Despite all that, there were still some things to love about the show. Forest Whitaker’s heartfelt love of the craft; Jack Black threatening to beat Peter O’ Toole with his Nickelodeon award; host Ellen DeGeneres getting Steven Spielberg to take her photo with Clint Eastwood using her point ‘n’ shoot digital. And, of course, it was great to see Martin Scorsese finally get the Oscar that he so desperately wanted, even if it wasn’t for his best work – but that’s a whole other rant.

So You Want to Win an Oscar (Pool)

Head here for 2008's version of
winning an Oscar Pool.

Despite what the media is trying to tell you, the Oscars are likely to be a dull affair, at least in terms of the mystery of who the big winners will be. The top categories have been set for weeks, with big wins at the Golden Globes, Screen Actors Guild awards, BAFTAs and all the other guilds and associations. But there is a vested interest in making people believe there could be an upset, otherwise why would anyone watch or read all the lead up?

Of course I will be watching and needed to fill out my ballot for the party. So I’ve decided to share my process, for what it’s worth. The two best places for top-notch Oscar picks are Film Experience – which has the best in-depth analysis of how the votes will go – and Entertainment Weekly, which has an unerring ability to pick the winners. I’ve also checked in on Roger Ebert’s picks and the latest Las Vegas odds on the show. All are below, with quotes and my picks at the end. Share and enjoy!

Best Picture
Film Experience: The Departed
“on account of its solid performance in each quadrant of success: box office + critics + media support + precursors.”
Entertainment Weekly: The Departed
Vegas Odds: The Departed (Odds: 5-2)
Roger Ebert: Babel
Me: The Departed
“I haven’t had a chance to see Iwo Jima and The Queen doesn’t interest me in the latest, so of the other three I’m going with The Departed. Sunshine was fun and I’d chose Babel to win, but this feels like Scorsese’s year.

Director
FE: Martin Scorsese
EW: Martin Scorsese
“Whatever happens in Best Picture, this one is in the bag.”
Vegas: Martin Scorsese (Odds: 5-1)
Ebert: Martin Scorsese
Me: Martin Scorsese
“Looks like the Academy is going to make up for years of snubs, both picture and director with this one, even though it wasn’t his best. ‘Tis the way of Oscar.

Actor
FE: Forest Whitaker
Forest Whitaker's long lead will pay off on Oscar night.
EW: Forest Whitaker
Vegas: Forest Whitaker (Odds: 2-5)
“Run Forest Run! It looks like Whitaker can start walking now with the lead he has built.”
Ebert: Forest Whitaker
“Oscar voters love it when actors remove themselves from the typecasting game and play a totally original character.”
Me: Forest Whitaker
“A great transformation – Whitaker always loses himself in the role and this was no exception.”

Actress
FE: Helen Mirren
Exactly as expected by everyone and their mother and their friends and their dog and their dogs fleas.
EW: Helen Mirren
Vegas: Helen Mirren (Odds: 1-15)
“With all due respect to the other nominees, I just can't see Helen on the canvas”
Ebert: Helen Mirren
Me: Helen Mirren
“The only mystery here is why anyone would write down another name on their ballot.”

Supporting Actor
FE: Eddie Murphy
EW: Eddie Murphy
Vegas: Eddie Murphy (Odds: 4-5)
Ebert: Eddie Murphy
“It would be an upset if anyone else wins this category.”
Me: Eddie Murphy
“Who am I to argue with such prognostication?”

Supporting Actress
FE: Jennifer Hudson
EW: Jennifer Hudson
Vegas: Jennifer Hudson (Odds: 3-5)
“I still believe Jennifer is going to grab a victory, but if there is a surprise in the four top acting categories, it's this one.”
Ebert: Jennifer Hudson
“Hudson's story is the kind beloved by movie audiences”
Me: Jennifer Hudson
“See above – these categories have been set in stone.”

Original Screenply
FE: Little Miss Sunshine
EW: Little Miss Sunshine
Ebert: Babel
“The academy will honor "Babel," not only because of its complex achievement, but also because of the thought and care that went into it.”
Me: Little Miss Sunshine
“After all the talk of Little Miss Sunshine being the Best Picture dark horse, this will be the consolation prize.”

Adapted Screenplay
FE: The Departed
EW: The Departed
“Monahans fast-paced, talky script touches every base: suspense, intrigue and unexpected humour.”
Me: The Departed

Foreign Film
FE: Lives of Others
EW: Pan’s Labyrinth
Ebert: Pan’s Labyrinth
"Pan's Labyrinth" is fresh and innovative, and was rumored to be in the running for a best picture nomination. It is the one to beat.”
Me: Pan’s Labyrinth
“I would like to say Water, but opinion is leaning heavily to Pan’s Labyrinth, so I will too.”

Animated Film
FE: Cars
EW: Cars
“People love penguins. But probably not enough for Happy Feet to outpace the actor-friendly Cars.
Ebert: Cars
Me: Cars
“Never bet against Pixar.”

Documentary Feature
FE: An Inconvenient Truth
EW: An Inconvenient Truth
Ebert: An Inconvenient Truth
“I have only once in my almost 40 years as a film critic written these words: "You owe it to yourself to see this film." That was the power of Al Gore's movie about global warming.”
Me: An Inconvenient Truth
“Hollywood can’t say no to an issue, and they still feel bad that Al isn’t President, so they’ll give him the best thing they have.”

Cinematography
FE: Children of Men
EW: Children of Men
“Everyone who sees Children of Men comes out raving about those tracking shots, it will probably win.”
Me: Children of Men

Art Direction
FE: Pan's Labyinrth
EW: Dreamgirls
“Dreamgirls eye-popping stage sequences and meticulous ‘60s re-creations will take the prize.”
Me: Pan's Labyinrth

Costume Design
FE: Dreamgirls
“I’m predicting Dreamgirls by a hair or maybe a sequin. Voters do prefer musicals in this category.”
EW: Marie Antoinette
Me: Marie Antoinette

Editing
FE: Babel
EW: United 93
“The showier United has the edge.”
Me: Babel

Score
FE: Pan's Labyinrth
EW: The Queen
“So give this prize to The Queen’s Alexandre Desplat.”
Me: The Queen

Sound Mixing
FE: Dreamgirls
EW: Dreamgirls
“The Academy often goes for music-oriented films. So stay tuned for a Dreamgirls win.”
Me: Dreamgirls

Sound Editing
FE: Pirates 2
“I’m thinking this goes to Pirates of the Caribbean with ease. The winner of this category is usually big, loud, and actioney”
EW: Pirates 2
Me: Pirates 2

Song
FE: I Need to Wake Up – Inconvenient Truth
“I’ve always loved Melissa Etheridge and I think her power anthem “I Need To Wake Up” is a terrific straightforward match for the movie that houses it”
EW: Listen - Dreamgirls
Me: Listen - Dreamgirls

Visual FX
FE: Pirates 2
EW: Pirates 2
“Yo, ho, ho there’s no contest here.”
Me: Pirates 2

Make Up
FE: Pan's Labyrinth
“Pan's Labyrinth had stunning makeup effects. And they LOVE prosthetics when it comes to this prize.”
EW: Pan’s Labyrinth
Me: Pan's Labyrinth
Animated Short
FE: The Little Match Girl
EW: The Little Match Girl
Me: The Little Match Girl

Live Action Short
FE: Binta & The Great Idea
EW: Eramos Pocos
Me: Eramos Pocos

Documentary Short
FE: Blood of Yingzhou District
EW: Two Hands
Me: Recycled Life
“Because I need to go out on my own on something.”

And the winner is… the Oscars!

Amid the talk of multiple nominations, snubs and triumphs one thing becomes clear. The big winner is the Academy Awards themselves, judging by the multiple thousands of articles I see on Google, which will soon be followed by thousands more: in-depth profiles of the nominees, photo galleries, retrospectives, quizzes, contests, office pools, printable ballots, party planning and the like. It’s a marketers dream – the product is part of mass culture and yet the Academy retains control. Everyone writes Oscar with a capital, don’t they?

Once the nominations are announced the frenzy truly begins, with the anointed making the media and party rounds, schmoozing for votes. At this point, it’s business – because an Oscar win can add millions at the box office and in DVD sales. A quick look at Toronto showtimes and I see listings for Babel, Letters from Iwo Jima, The Queen, The Pursuit of Happyness, Dreamgirls, Pan's Labyrinth, Blood Diamond, Notes on a Scandal, Children of Men, Happy Feet, The Good Shepherd, Apocalypto and even Borat. For the best of 2006, there sure are a lot of them still around in 2007. It’s like they knew somehow. As for the other major nominees, Little Miss Sunshine and The Devil Wears Prada are already out on DVD and The Departed and Borat arrive next month, before the red carpet is rolled out.

If you’re unconvinced it’s all about the bottom line, consider this fact from Variety: “Over the past five years, the winners of the top two Globe kudos -- drama and comedy/musical -- have made $91 million between Globes night and Oscar night.” And that’s just the Golden Globe winners. Imagine what that little golden man can do for your movie. Watch for jumps for most of the nominees this weekend as people head to theatres to see what all the fuss is about, or to fill in their gaps before filling out their Oscar pool sheets. But I’m not complaining. I know I’m being sold to and I’m on board with it – it beats memorizing sports stats.

As for the nominees themselves, I have no opinion as I have only seen three of the films listed, my worst showing in years. I would feel worse about this except for the fact the vast majority were released just before or soon after the birth of my son, and while he’s ok to tote around to parties, screenings are not as welcoming. But I contend this will not stop my from winning my Oscar pool and defeating my arch-rival (she knows who she is!) Having seen most of the films can often be a detriment, as you tend to make artistic judgments and that always hurts you.

To win your pool, all you need to do is the following three things:

1. Read Entertainment Weekly’s Oscar issue a couple of days before the ceremony.
2. Read Film Experience daily – Nathaniel is an unfailing good predictor and fount of Oscar knowledge. (participants in my Oscar pool are not to click on this link)
3. Remember, it’s show BUSINESS.

You Lookin' At Me, Oscar?

Is an Oscar all that matters? Director Martin Scorsese is back in theatres with his mobster film The Departed, which is both a critical and box office success. Fantastic right? What more could you want? A little gold statuette, perhaps?

I don’t know that Scorsese sits awake at nights pining for an award that has never been, but if he isn’t, film writers are doing it for him. Wrote David Germain of the Associated Press last week: “Always a bridesmaid at the Oscars, Martin Scorsese is tied with four other filmmakers for awards futility: Five nominations, no wins.”

In an article titled “Has Scorsese finally arrived,” Ed Pilkington of the Guardian News Service opined that “he has not won the Oscar for best director, an honour that he has unashamedly coveted,” added later, “Come on Academy, give him his blasted Oscar.”

As a result, the relative merits of The Departed will be buried under a flurry of articles about how Scorsese is the Susan Lucci of the Academy – remember this goes on until February. It’s true that he has always been left empty handed when the director awards are handed out, missing for The Aviator, Gangs of New York, Goodfellas, The Last Temptation of Christ and Raging Bull. But he has had a stellar career, with a filmography anyone could be envious of. If anything, all it shows how wrong the Oscar voters have been – Kevin Costner for Dances With Wolves over Goodfellas anyone? An award would be fantastic, but it’s not the end all, be all it has been made out to be.

Of course it may not matter anyway. I do okay with my Oscar predictions, but I’m nowhere near the prognosticator that Nathanial over at Film Experience is. I think he tracks the races practically from the days after the statues are handed out and has an uncanny ability to pick the winners. According to his latest list, The Departed won’t even get a Best Picture nod, so Scorsese could be snubbed once again. Ah well.

Yet Another Oscar Montage

I blame myself of course. Every year I mess up on my Oscar picks by choosing what I want to win (this year it was Paradise Now over Tsotsi) or not going with my gut (choosing Brokeback Mountain over Crash. I even blogged on Saturday that I was going to pick Crash. Oh why don’t I listen to me?)

That being said, I did quite well and won my Oscar pool — edging out my pop culture rival and my wife who is always a dark horse — getting 18 of 24 categories correct. Hey, 75% is not too shabby, it’s how I got through school.

But enough of my self-congratulation — that’s Hollywood’s job. It was actually a good show, as award shows go. My greatest worry was that Jon Stewart would tank but, bless him, he was the best part of the night. He skewered left and right, Russell Crowe and did what he could to puncture some of the evening’s pomposity. There really wasn’t a chance he was going to go Crossfire on the broadcast, so I’m happy with what we got. Now hope for a jump in ratings for the Daily Show and don’t take the gig again.

There really wasn’t much else to be shocked or surprised about. Touchy-feely E! host Issac Mizrahi kept his hands too himself, and nobody but Jack Nicholson appeared all that drunk. We had to wonder how pissed off Matt Dillon was being sat behind Charlize Theron’s humongous bow and there was a quick audience shot of Andy Rooney who now looks like Darth Vader when he isn’t wearing his helmet. Shudder.

And why does the Academy feel the need to rush people off the stage in 30 to 60 seconds on likely the biggest night of the lives, but has plenty of time for montages, clip tributes and full song performances/interpretive dances?

For a longer, snarkier, blow-by-blow recap of the night, check out What Would Tyler Durden Do and Defamer. It’s why they get the big numbers.

Oscar Angst

I figure the Oscars will be a letdown. Not because of the nominees and the potential winners – they are a generally worthy group – but because of the build up.

There have been countless awards shows preceding the ceremony and the media coverage leading up to it has been ceaseless. During the rest of the year I will try and avoid reading about films I’m looking forward to so as not to disappointed by high expectations, I have to wonder how the show can possibly live up to the hype.

Nonetheless I will be watching. The main categories are all sewn up and while I figure Brokeback Mountain will likely walk away with Best Picture, I think I’ll put down Crash and hope to win my pool in an upset.

What I’m excited and worried about is Jon Stewart. Will he be his sharp, skewering self or will the Academy have watered him down? I hope he goes for it – screw getting asked back next year. Will the man who tore bloody strips off the hosts of Crossfire be Hollywood’s monkey? I can only hope not.

But until then, and because I still find some of these funny, here is more from Jokeback Mountain:

1.) Brokeback Mountain in 30 Seconds (and Reenacted by Bunnies). Get the rest of the brilliant Bunnies oeuvre here.2.) Lego Brokeback Mountain -- if it’s good enough for the White Stripes, it’s good enough for Brokeback. Make sure to watch the slideshow.
3.) Low Culture traces the history of Brokeback Mountains, from their origins in Egyptian hieroglyphics to today. Love it.

Avalanche on Brokeback Mountain

If they are lucky, nobody will be killed by the avalanche of Oscars about to befall Brokeback Mountain in two weeks.

The British Academy Film Awards handed out their big silver faces on Sunday and you’d be forgiven for thinking the Oscars had taken place. Not that anyone watches the BAFTAs or uses it as an Oscar barometer, but no matter. Brokeback Mountain won best picture, director, supporting actor and adapted screenplay. Ok, four isn’t exactly an avalanche, but they are major categories and only Walk the Line and Crash got more than one award.

The rest of the major categories went as expected: Philip Seymour Hoffman took best actor for Capote and Reese Witherspoon was named best actress for playing June Carter Cash.

As far as upsets go, Thandie Newton was a surprise win as best supporting actress in Crash. A surprise not because she isn’t deserving, but a surprise as she didn’t even get an Oscar nod for the role. I also didn’t expect to see Jake Gyllenhaal win for best supporting actor, which just points to the awards juggernaut this film has become.

If you’re hoping to sweep your Oscar pool this year, you’d better be pouring over the short film, documentary and technical awards because the big eight categories are all sewn up.

No Snub, No Surprise

The talking heads had a hard time this morning when the Oscar nominations were announced. After the names were read the anchors turned to their pundits and asked what the surprises were and who was snubbed. They had little to say because there was little wrong with the list.

For a year that was mostly bereft of good films until the last few months, there is some fine cinema recognized. All the Best Picture nominees are worthy, but I would have put Walk the Line in that group instead of Capote. How do you have a Best Actor and Actress but aren't a nominee for Best Picture? But its not like its been ignored, so no harm done.

Again, I was happy to see the recognition of Crash, which I think has the best chance of giving Ang Lee's Brokeback Mountain a run for Best Picture, but the odds are not good. In fact the odds makers in Vegas agree with my picks from yesterday (see below), so I'm going to stand by them

As for the nominations, I would have given a Best Supporting nod to Don Cheadle for Crash instead of for William Hurt's scene-chewing in A History of Violence and considered Eric Bana in Munich and Ralph Fiennes in The Constant Gardner for Best Actor recognition, but I don't see anyone I would take off the current list.

Of course, that’s the kind of year it has been -- there are more than enough films to make picking a Top 10, let alone a Top 5 a difficult choice.

I Spy With My Little Eye, Somthing That is Gold

We're into the finals of the film awards. The Oscar nominations will be announced tomorrow morning (or already have been, depending on when you are reading this.)

I don't figure there will be many surprises as the races have narrowed considerably. Brokeback Mountain wins for Best Picture and Director, Philip Seymour Hoffman takes Best Actor for Capote, Resse Witherspoon is named Best Actress for Walk the Line, Rachel Weisz takes Supporting Actress for The Constant Gardner and everyone's favourite everyman Paul Giamatti wraps up Supporting Actor for Cinderella Man.

Ooops, I got ahead of myself. We're only looking at the nominations aren't we? Anyway, the one thing I've been happy to see is the rise of Crash during awards season, with an ensemble win at the Screen Actors Guild Awards on Sunday. Of course it's far too late. I think the Academy should hire Mark Burnett to produce the show so he can, much like on Survivor, make us believe there is a chance some else will be voted off (or win in this case) other than the clear frontrunner. In other words, we need it to look like a race before they had Ang Lee his armful of statues.

Now with the good awards comes the so bad its good awards. The Golden Raspberry nominations were announced today, celebrating the worst in film. Son of the Mask led the way, but seriously, we knew that without watching. I was glad to see the pointless big screen version of the Dukes of Hazzard slapped and going after anything Paris Hilton makes (in this case House of Wax) is a good thing. Makes me wonder how she did at the Adult Video News Awards with her last release.

But once again I digress. What annoyed me about this year's awards was the inclusion of a new category, Most Tiresome Tabloid Targets. Wha? Come on Razzies, were you not getting enough attention that you needed to shoot some fish in a barrel? Tom Cruise couch jumping jokes? That's so old. Last year Halle Berry actually showed up to accept her award, so stick to smacking down bad acting and leave the celebs to the tabs. On the up side, you can vote if you want to. Just $25 lets you in on the fun.